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Solar crisis set to hit in 2010, 50% of manufacturers may not survive

Posted by JonathanMork at 8:58 PM on Monday, September 7th, 2009
Click Here To See Our Other Solar Coverage

Click Here To See Our Other Solar Coverage

I would normally take the time to dissect an article and break it down – but this story out of DigiTimes is as concise as they get.  Bottom line, if you own solar stocks, be prepared for a massive shakeout in 2010 due – in large part – to increased supply from China, which added an additional 1GW of capacity.

As  a result, “The solar industry is at a critical stage and 50% of existing solar manufacturers may not survive 2010, according to The Information Network.”

Further support for this crisis comes from Solar panel manufacturers that have reported loses just in the past few weeks include Energy Conversion Devices, JA Solar, LDK Solar, Q-Cells, ReneSola, Solar Power, and Yingli Green Energy Holding.

Regards,
Jonathan

Small-Cap Feature: China Agritech P/E Of 5.25 Is Attractive

Posted by GeorgeTsiolis at 6:50 AM on Thursday, August 20th, 2009

As many of you know, we are very bullish on the long-term future of Chinese small cap and mid cap companies for two reasons:

1] The obvious reason – China is the fastest growing economy on the planet and nothing is going to slow down its ascent over the next 50 years and beyond. Investing in growth companies there just makes too much sense.

2] Great Results and Valuations - Many Small Cap Chinese Companies are listing in the US (OTCBB, NYSE Alternext and NASDAQ) with great financial results. Unlike many dubious US Small Cap Companies, Chinese Companies don’t seem to believe in losing money or failing to execute in a business plan. As such, 7-digit revenues and profits are very common.

From a valuation point of view, many Chinese companies became a victim of their own success in Q4 2008 and Q1 2009. Why? When the world needed to start liquidating, one of the first places they looked were China where most investors had significant gains to sell into. This resulted in the proverbial baby being thrown out with the bathwater and some great valuations.

TODAY’S FEATURED COMPANY

China Agritech Inc – OTC.BB:CAGC

Cagc

China Agritech, Inc. is engaged in the development, manufacture and distribution of liquid and granular organic compound fertilizers and related products in China. The Company has developed proprietary formulas that provide a continuous supply of high-quality agricultural products while maintaining soil fertility. The Company sells its products to farmers located in 26 provinces of China.

On Augsut 17th, the company reported it’s Quarterly Revenues and Net Income for the Second Quarter of 2009.

Check out the full details below!

Read Full Press Release

China Stocks TV Segment

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Net revenue increased 56.9% year-over-year to $21 million
  • Gross profit increased 37.3% year-over-year to $8.9 million
  • Net income increased 91.2% year-over-year to $5.6 million

MY COMMENTS:

Anytime a company hits record revenue and income, you have to take a closer look and see if you’ve stumbled upon a company that is really hitting its growth cycle.

In this case China Agritech achieved earnings of $0.22/share for the quarter! Even if the company had no more earnings for the year, you’d have a decent P/E.  However, in this case, we know the company has re-affirmed annual net income of $9.5 million, which should translate into approximately $0.38/share for the year.  With the company trading in the $2.80 range, this translates into roughly an 7.5 P/E.  I like that.

The story gets even better.  With $16.5 million in cash, China Agritech has about $.80/share in cash.  As such, if you strip that out of the share price, you are actually buying the business for $2.00 per share, which bring the true P/E down to about 5.25.  The comany has no long-term debt and a current ratio of 5.4 : 1.  This is an incredibly attractive opportunity.

As always, this is my view in a snapshot. It is intended to give you a running start into your research. Now, you have to do your own due diligence to make sure the valuation is not impaired by other factors including balance sheet items, lawsuits or any other negative events.

If you have any comments, I’d love to see them below.

YOUR RESEARCH STARTING POINTS FOR CHINESE SMALL CAP AND MID CAP COMPANIES

We’ve provided investors with two great starting points to research great Chinese small cap and mid cap companies.

1. ChinaSecurities.com – ChinaSecurities.com tracks 250 of the best small cap and mid cap companies trading on North American exchanges. It provides you with the best of the best in two ways. First, the front page lists the best news of the day coming out of the space. It does so by giving you a text view of the best press releases by industry and via Chinese Stocks TV, a 5-minute broadcast every morning just after the open. Chinse Stocks TV is archived, so you can catch up on shows you missed.

Second, if you want to research each of the 250 companies to find candidates for your portfolio, it has a very intuitive directory that lets you quickly review each company on the master list, or parse it out by industry and exchange if you have a particular sector of interest. Cool stuff.

2. Right here on AGORACOM, you can refer to our China category for other featured Chinese Small-Cap Companies. As always, we will disclose any IR relationship with any public company. Given the sheer number of great Chinese Small-Cap Companies out there, you can expect us NOT to have an IR relationship with most of these companies.

Regards,
George

Bloomberg: China to Invest $14.6 Billion in Wind Power by 2010

Posted by Alex Ba at 7:38 AM on Thursday, June 18th, 2009

Great article on Bloomberg recently.  China, the world’s second-biggest energy consumer, will invest about 100 billion yuan ($14.6 billion) to more than double its wind power capacity by 2010 from last year.

That is great news for alternative energy investors in general and wind power investors in particular.  According to a government official, China’s wind power capacity was the fourth-largest in the world last year.

In fact it is quite clear that China is getting serious about alternative energy for the long-term.  Why?  First , The government has allocated 210 billion yuan (~ $US 30 billion) for energy- saving and carbon-reduction projects under its 4 trillion-yuan economic stimulus package.

Second, last month, Han Wenke, the Head of Energy Research at the Planning Commission stated that China is drafting a long-term plan to develop renewable energy to replace coal and oil with cleaner-burning fuels.  Wenke added that details will be released “soon”.

Overall, this is a great article that includes more information on both the government and the private side of things. If you are interested in Chinese alternative energy companies, it is a must read.

To this end, you should also take a look at a post here on our blog by Matt Hayden titled “China’s Efforts To Be The Largest Renewable Energy Market In The World Provides Vast Opportunities For Investors.”

Regards,
Alex

China’s Efforts to be the Largest Renewable Energy Market in the World Provides Vast Opportunities for Investors

Posted by Matt Hayden at 12:25 PM on Thursday, April 30th, 2009

China’s unprecedented economic growth over the past 30 years has come at a huge cost to the environment and this is no surprise for most of you who live in urbanized areas.  In fact , 20 of the 30 most polluted cities in the world are in China. 400,000 people die of pollution related diseases each year. One third of Chinese territory is affected by acid rain and approximately 70% of its water supply is polluted.

The damage has not only been to the air the Chinese breath or the water in their rivers, but also to its reputation across the world. But there are signs that China is serious about tackling pollution to prove to the world that it can develop while causing less damage to the environment, plus giving a better quality of life to its citizens. $184 billion is being devoted to China’s renewable energy markets - set to become the largest in the world. And yet if that wasn’t enough, the chief economist from Deutche Bank predicts that China will invest an astounding $754 billion over the next 36 months to reduce the magnitude of this growing, enormous problem.

POTENTIAL LARGE SECULAR GROWTH OPPORTUNITY

If that plays out correct, it will create one of the largest secular growth opportunities the country has seen aside from massive infrastructure and real estate development which have moved the country to Third in the World according to GDP. China is currently the world’s biggest consumer of coal, the cheapest yet most polluting source of energy. The country uses a quarter of the world’s coal reserves and depends on it to provide more than two thirds of its energy needs, while 2 new coal-fired power plants come on line each week.

The rapid growth has also altered old Chinese habits that used to be environmentally friendly. As soon as you walk out from your hotel onto the street of Beijing you realize that the typical image of Chinese city streets being packed with bicycle-riding commuters is becoming a thing of the past. During the first quarter, China surpassed the US with the number of vehicles sold and for the first time surpassed 1 million vehicles in March.

Pollution problems in China are estimated to cost the country more than $200 billion annually, and it should be no surprise that pollution is widely considered to be the #1 challenge to China’s sustained economic growth. World governments are fast adopting carbon standards which will penalize businesses for producing greenhouse gases. China’s Eleventh Five Year Plan calls for more than $190 billion in investment by industrial companies for cleanup. As a result of this focus, China’s environmental protection industry is growing at an annual rate of at least 23%, substantially faster than China’s normalized GDP growth (forecast for 2009 at 7%).

COMPANIES THAT MAY BENEFIT FROM CHINA’S MASSIVE INVESTMENT IN GREEN ENERGY

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